Romanians have entered the "week of financial passions", in which they are looking for the cheapest products and sales for the Easter meal, as this year's holidays promise to be more austere, amid a decrease in purchasing power, economic consultant Adrian Negrescu told AGERPRES.
"We have entered the week of financial passions for Romanians, in terms of the Easter holiday. For many Romanians, the next few days are a real race in search of the cheapest products specific to the holidays, sales and the best offers that the big stores list during this period. The good news is that, during this period, large stores have come up with significant discounts, not in an attempt to ensure a higher profit, but in an attempt to make volume sales, given the sharp drop in consumption and trade in the last two to three months. Many of the food producers, but also retailers, are trying to save their turnover, given that there can be no talk of profit, at a time when all operating costs are increasing from one day to the next," Negrescu said.
Thus, for most Romanians, the holidays will be defined by a calendar of sales announced by the stores.
In his opinion, "the Easter meal will be more austere than in previous years."
"We are expecting volume sales to decrease to a new minimum of the last five years, especially for holiday-specific products, as a consequence of a significant decrease in purchasing power for most Romanians. A family with two children probably needs at least RON 1,000-1,200 for these holidays to provide everything they need, from lamb meat and died eggs, to alcoholic beverages, which have become very expensive. What about gifts for children, which are becoming increasingly more expensive? In other words, it's an Easter per hundred grams, an Easter in which sales are made especially by the piece. See also these offers with sliced sponge cake, available in more and more stores," says the economic consultant.
According to him, many of the traditional products, such as sponge cake and lamb, will be replaced by cheaper alternatives, such as chicken and pastries in lieu of the traditional Easter cake.
Negrescu warns that, after Easter, the increase in fuel prices and the increase of almost 60% in the gas prices for companies, amid the liberalisation of the market, could push inflation above 10% in the coming months, to a level well above the European average.
"I'm afraid that after Easter a significant wave of price increases awaits us generated by the increase in gasoline and diesel prices, but especially by the increase in gas prices, by almost 60% for companies in Romania, at the worst possible time. The liberalisation of the gas market from April 1 comes and puts a strong layer of inflation on top of an extremely difficult situation, in which, probably, the price growth rate in Romania will exceed 10% in April, and maybe even June, a record at European level, with an inflation rate four times higher than the European average."
Instead of anticipating the inflationary effects of energy and gas price increases, the government lets things unfold according to a previously established calendar, which did nothing but amplify the price increases, Negrescu added.
"The same happened last year, when the liberalisation of the energy market brought a historic increase in electricity prices, of almost 80%, generating a huge wave of inflation, which we are still feeling today. I'm afraid that the next few months will bring a new significant wave of price increases, which will erode the purchasing power even more, and better news will only appear in the second part of the year, especially in August and September, when inflation could moderate towards 6-7%, but not lower given the effects of diesel and gas price increases."
Given the circumstances, the National Bank is unlikely to reduce its key interest rate this autumn, from the current level of 6.5%, he believes.
Therefore, the cheapening of loans will most likely be postponed until next spring, "if inflation drops to 4-5% and the geopolitical context stabilises."
"We are witnessing a second wave of restructuring in the Romanian economy, after the one triggered by the tax increase in 2025, when, mainly, large companies restructured their businesses and gave up part of their staff. In 2026 it is the turn of small companies, especially micro-enterprises, many of them unfortunately reaching the end of their road."
The analyst added that there is a record number of insolvencies in the first two months of the year, up almost 30%.
"Unfortunately, many of the small businesses tend to close shop amid the decrease in sales, the accentuation of the financial blockage and the increase in taxes. A strong blow to micro-enterprises was the lowering of the eligibility threshold to EUR 100,000 turnover, and also an increase in the dividend tax to 16%, all decisions that forced many investors to close down their companies and reversing to sole proprietorships," said Negrescu.
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