The energy offers published by the National Energy Regulatory Authority (ANRE) valid from April 1, 2026, are a signal that the supply market no longer values energy according to the cost of goods, but to the size of the risk, commercial prudence and, for some players, an obvious return to high margins, says chairman of the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI), Dumitru Chisalita, in an analysis published on Monday.
"The offers that appeared on the ANRE page for April 1, 2026 - between 0.32 and 0.41 lei/kWh including VAT - are not just a set of new prices. They are, in fact, a signal. A signal that the supply market no longer values energy according to the cost of goods, but according to the size of the risk, commercial prudence and - for some players - an obvious return to high margins. When the natural gas costs, taking into account the price traded on the Romanian Commodity Exchange (BRM) for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2026, are 0.31 lei/kWh, when the natural gas costs, taking into account the price traded on the European Gas Exchange - TTF for 2026 are 0.29 lei/kWh, when the price invoiced in December 2025 was 0.29 lei/kWh, an offer of 0.32 lei/kWh means an increase of 3% compared to the capped price. It's an almost neutral move: maybe a higher administrative cost, a portfolio adjustment, a normal update. On the other hand, the upper end of the range, 0.41 lei/kWh, means +32% against the capped price - and we are no longer talking about adjustments, but about a brutal repositioning."
According to Chisalita, commercial margins are widening and it means a risk envelope.
"If we currently see margins of around 4%, for 2026 there are offers that suggest the equivalent of margins that go up to about 22%. Of course, part of this 'margin' is, in reality, a risk envelope: imbalance costs, losses, financing, non-receipts, uncertainties. But one part becomes clear, some suppliers no longer run by volume, but by clean and predictable profit. And when the final price increases, the tax effect inevitably appears. The VAT does not 'change' as a percentage, but as an invoice amount it increases directly proportional to the base. Therefore, an increase in the final price by 32% also leads to an increase of about 32% in the amounts paid as VAT. For the consumers, this means a simple thing, not only does they pay more to the supplier, but they also pay more to the state. The bill becomes heavier from both directions," said Chisalita.
At the same time, gas market data for 2026 show a price of 0.16 lei/kWh on BRM, compared to 0.127 lei/kWh on TTF, a difference of about 26%, "which suggests that Romania continues to internalise a price 'premium' compared to the European hub, either for reasons of liquidity, market structure, internal constraints, or due to costs and perceived risk, or out of greed."
"Gas is not just a separate commodity; in Europe, it remains one of the main benchmarks for the marginal price of electricity. In other words, this spread can be seen in a chain, even if it does not fully explain the large increases in electricity retail. What is important to understand is that these offers for 2026 do not necessarily show an explosion in the real cost of gas, but rather a paradigm shift, suppliers value the future as a period in which 'cheap' means 'dangerous'. And the consumer is in the middle of a market where the price reflects not only the kilowatt hour, but also the fear of instability, the desire for profit and commercial freedom. In the end, the range of 0.32 - 0.41 lei/kWh is not just a difference of 9 bani. It is a difference in economic model. Some suppliers will have a quota, others will have margin and selection. For consumers, this means that, in 2026, the most important thing will not be gas - but the lack of attention to supply."
The AEI official exemplifies the situation also by the fact that, for the client, the new offers will mean, in fact, higher payments for a two-room apartment (between 150 and 1,500 lei/year), respectively for a house, from 300 to 3,000 lei/year
"This situation is primarily due to the way in which the preparation for the repeal of the gas price cap was (not) managed. These offers were made gradually, mandatory, month after month in the last year, without the pressure of blocking transactions on BRM in recent months, without 'we continue'', 'we do not continue' the capping that has dragged up the price of gas in Romania, with the obligation to publish the supplier's commercial margin on the invoice, with a clear commitment 'we give the VAT surplus, from the price increase in recent years back to the consumer', we would have had fair prices in Romania and they should have been lower than the capped price. The speed with which the contracts for April 1, 2026 will be made, due to all these analyses upon analyses, which artificially created this time crisis, pushes Romanians to 'swallow' these prices by tacitly signing the contracts without knowing what prices they pay for the natural gas," said Chisalita.
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