Romanian authorities are making sustained efforts to avoid a downgrade of the country's rating to the "junk" category (speculative investments), which would make access to financial markets more difficult and increase borrowing costs for both the state and companies, according to an article published on Wednesday on the Opinii BNR blog, signed by Cristian Bichi, advisor to the BNR governor.
"The Romanian authorities are doing a real balancing act so that Romania's rating does not end up in the "junk" category ("speculative investments"), which would make it more difficult for the country to access the financing markets and would lead to an increase in the costs of loans. If Romania borrows more expensively, so will Romanian companies. In general, due to the many technical aspects involved, the subject of credit ratings remains a nebula for the general public and, in some cases, even for economic analysts," Bichi says.
Starting from this reality, this opinion is developed for financial education purposes, notes the author of the analysis.
"A rating agency is an independent legal entity whose activity includes the professional granting of credit ratings (notes/qualifications). The qualifications take into account the prospective assessment of the credit risk of issuers or financial obligations", specified the advisor to the BNR governor.
According to him, "the primary reason for the existence of rating agencies is to reduce the information asymmetry between the issuer of a financial instrument and investors regarding its ability and willingness to make timely payments on its debts."
Ratings are important not only for their informational content, but also for their transactional value and the fact that they are used for financial regulation purposes, the BNR official added.
"The rating agency sector is highly concentrated, consisting of a few major global players (Standard & Poor's - S&P, Moody's and FitchRatings), the so-called "Big Three", and various minor agencies (regional or strictly specialized)," the document also reads.
According to European legal provisions, a credit rating represents an opinion, granted on the basis of a well-established and defined classification system of rating categories, regarding the creditworthiness of an entity, a claim or a financial obligation, a debt security or a preferential share and other financial instruments or an issuer of such obligations.
According to the cited source, a credit rating is "only a forward-looking opinion regarding the credit risk of an issuer or financial obligations and not an accounting certification or guarantee regarding the effective payment of debts."
"Sovereign credit ratings indicate both the ability and willingness of governments assessed by specialized agencies to meet their financial obligations, in full and on time, to private commercial creditors. A sovereign rating, which is a form of "issuer rating", does not address obligations to other governments, supranational institutions (e.g. IMF, World Bank) or public sector enterprises/regional governments," the analysis further shows.
Ratings from BBB- or Baaa3 upwards are considered, by market convention, to belong to the "investment grade" category, while ratings from BB+ or Ba1 downwards are classified as "speculative investments" or "high yield". The latter category is also known as "non-investment grade" or the derogatory term "junk".
At the same time, the advisor to the governor of the National Bank of Romania referred to the most recent credit rating granted to Romania by the S&P agency, on April 3, 2026.
"In its commentary on the rating action, the agency specifies, as a title, the following: Romania ratings confirmed 'BBB-/A-3'; Negative outlook. We will recognize from the start, from the reference to Romania, that we are facing a sovereign rating, a rating on the issuer, which shows the general capacity of our country to honor its financial obligations towards private commercial creditors. Being familiar with rating scales, we will identify the BBB- grade as representing a long-term rating step, which falls into the "investment-recommended" category. However, this position represents the last step before moving to the "junk" category and the materialization of the negative effects of such an evolution," explained Cristian Bichi.
Reading the agency's press release will reveal that the BBB- rating concerns both foreign currency and "local" currency (RON) obligations of Romania (the agency decided not to grant a more favorable rating to the latter), notes the BNR official.
"The same rating was also granted to the government's individual senior and unsecured obligations. The indicated outlook is negative, which indicates the meaning of a possible rating change (its worsening), within a two-year time horizon. I emphasize that the respective outlook does not necessarily mean that such an event will take place. As S&P specifies, the outlook may become "stable" if the external and fiscal deficits narrow substantially, with the support of a relaunch of economic growth," added Bichi.
The A-3 rating represents a short-term rating step, he specified.
"According to S&P, a debtor in this category has adequate capacity to meet its financial obligations. However, adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances are more likely to change the debtor's capacity to make payments," added the advisor to the BNR governor.
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