The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association rose slightly in February 2026 to 48.4 points, amid improved analysts' expectations regarding economic developments, according to a press release from the organisation.
'In the context of expectations of a continued reduction in the budget deficit, the expectations component of the indicator continued to improve in February. In line with these expectations, in February the anticipated rates for financing public debt and the expected budget deficit for the current year also declined,' CFA Romania Association president Adrian Codirlasu is quoted in the release as saying.
According to the source, the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association increased slightly by 1.6 points (to 48.4 points) in February. The rise came exclusively from the expectations component, which increased by 2.6 points (to 51.2 points). The current conditions component remained relatively unchanged (down 0.2 points).
The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (March 2027) rose marginally compared with the previous month and reached 5.88%, while 81% of participants expect inflation to decrease over the next 12 months compared with its current level. It is important to note that the survey was conducted in the final week of February, and these expectations do not incorporate developments caused by the outbreak of the war in Iran, the release reads.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 81% of participants expect a depreciation of the leu over the next 12 months, while 19% anticipate stability. Thus, the average expected value for the six-month horizon is 5.1280 lei per euro, while for the 12-month horizon the average expected EUR/RON rate is 5.1642 lei per euro.
As for residential property prices in cities, 43% of participants expect them to remain stable over the next 12 months. In addition, 57% of participants believe current prices to be overvalued, while 43% consider them fairly valued.
The state budget deficit forecast for 2026 decreased by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous exercise, reaching an average expected value of 6.1% of GDP.
Economic growth expectations for 2026 have been revised down to an average of 0.9%. Public debt, calculated as a percentage of GDP, is expected to increase to 62% over the next 12 months.
The survey has been conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association for over 14 years and represents an indicator through which the organisation seeks to quantify financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania over a one-year horizon. The survey is carried out in the final week of each month, and participants are members of the CFA Romania Association as well as candidates for Levels II and III of the CFA exam.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator ranges from 0 (lack of confidence) to 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions regarding current conditions - referring to the business environment and the labour market - and expectations over a one-year horizon for the business environment, the labour market, the evolution of personal income at the level of the economy and the evolution of personal wealth at the level of the economy.
In addition to the questions required to calculate the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator, the survey also assesses expectations, again over a one-year horizon, for the inflation rate, interest rates, the EUR/RON exchange rate, the BET stock index and global macroeconomic conditions.
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