The slowdown in consumption deepened in November, raising the risk that Romania could record a contraction in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the previous quarter and enter a technical recession, said Adrian Codirlasu, president of CFA Romania.
"We have year-on-year growth of 1.7% in the third quarter of 2025 compared with Q3 2024. I would say this growth more or less guarantees that we will close the year overall with a small increase, albeit lower than in 2024. In 2024 we had 0.9% GDP growth. In 2025 we will probably be around 0.5%, or perhaps slightly below, but still positive. That is the good news. The less good news is that a technical recession in 2025 is possible, as GDP fell by 0.2% in Q3 compared with Q2. Looking at how consumption evolved in the fourth quarter of last year, it is possible that Q4 compared with Q3 will also show a decline in GDP. There are risks of a technical recession in the last two quarters of last year. Overall, however, the year will still post a small increase," Codirlasu told AGERPRES.
He added that the decline in consumption has intensified, with consumption down 4.8% in November 2025 compared with November 2024, a sharper fall than in October on an annual basis.
"Consumption has been hit by tax increases. On the one hand, there is also a base effect in 2025, because in 2024 money was effectively poured into the economy. Those policies were not sustainable for supporting consumption growth. This also explains part of the decline, but what triggered the drop in consumption starting in August were tax hikes," he said.
Codirlasu also said that a decline in consumption could be recorded in December as well.
Looking ahead, he warned that consumption will also be under pressure in 2026 due to a loss of purchasing power, but said Romania's opportunity lies in attracting European funds.
"This could be our record year for attracting European funds. If we add everything up, we could have access to around EUR 20-25 billion. I do not think we have the capacity to absorb all of it, but at least to exceed EUR 15 billion. Historically, we have absorbed around EUR 11-12 billion, which was the maximum reached in 2023," he said.
Meanwhile, the National Institute of Statistics (INS) revised upwards economic growth for the period 1 January-30 September 2025, to 0.9% on the unadjusted series and 1.5% on the seasonally adjusted series compared with the same period in 2024, according to provisional data (II) published on Friday.
INS data show that seasonally adjusted GDP estimated for Q3 2025 stood at RON 486.793 billion at current prices, down 0.2% in real terms compared with the previous quarter and up 1.5% compared with Q3 2024.
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