CFA Romania: Macroeconomic Confidence Index down 15.6 points in December, to 28.7 points

The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index declined by 15.6 points in December 2018 compared with the previous month to 28.7 points, while compared with the same month of the previous year it lost 12.3 points, according to a press release sent to AGERPRES on Tuesday.

The current conditions indicator fell 9.1 points from the previous month to 46.4 points (minus 12.5 points versus December 2017). The expectations indicator dropped 18.8 points, to 19.9 points (minus 12.2 points versus December 2017).

Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, more than 87% of the participants estimate a depreciation of the RON in the next 12 months (compared with the present value). Thus, the average estimate for the 6-month horizon is 4.7168, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the expected rate is 4.7883.

The estimated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (January 2020/January 2019) recorded an average value of 3.93%.

"Also, more than 73% of the respondents expect a decline in the Bucharest Stock Exchange's BET index in the next 12 months," according to the same release.

The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator was launched by CFA Romania in May 2011 and is an indicator through which the association wishes to quantify the financial analysts' predictions about the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. Also, the survey based on which the Indicator is calculated included questions regarding the assessment of the current macroeconomic conditions.