The annual inflation rate will increase between March and June 2026 to higher values ??than previously forecast, mainly as a result of the anticipated influences arising from the increase in fuel prices, amid the considerable increase in oil and natural gas prices in the context of the war in the Middle East, according to a central bank statement.
"According to current assessments, the annual inflation rate will increase between March and June 2026 to higher values than previously forecast, mainly as a result of the anticipated influences arising from the increase in fuel prices, amid the considerable increase in oil and natural gas prices in the context of the war in the Middle East. These will overlap with the unfavorable base effects that will manifest themselves in the second quarter of 2026 on the energy segment, as well as the transitory direct effects exerted from the second semester of 2025 by the expiration of the electricity price cap scheme and the increase in VAT and excise duty rates, which are due to run out in the third quarter of 2026 and thus lead to a steep downward correction of the annual inflation rate," the National Bank of Romania's press release states.
At the same time, the BNR mentions that the progress of the budgetary correction initiated in 2025 is likely to intensify in the future the disinflationary pressures of fundamental factors, especially those from aggregate demand - with favorable implications also on inflationary expectations - and to lead to the further adjustment of the current account deficit.
Uncertainties remain, however, associated with the measures that will probably be adopted in the future in order to continue budgetary consolidation beyond the current year in accordance with the Medium-Term Budgetary-Structural Plan agreed with the EC and the excessive deficit procedure.
However, the war in the Middle East and the current global energy crisis generate significant uncertainties and risks regarding the outlook for economic activity, implicitly the medium-term evolution of inflation, through the potential effects exerted, in several ways, on consumer purchasing power, as well as on the activity and profits of companies, including by affecting the dynamics of economies and inflation at European/global level and the perception of risk towards the region, with an impact on financing costs.
In this context, the absorption and maximum use of European funds, mainly those related to the PNRR, are essential for partially offsetting the contractionary effects of budgetary consolidation and the conflict in the Middle East, as well as for carrying out the necessary structural reforms, including the energy transition.
According to the BNR, the monetary policy decisions of the ECB and the Fed, as well as the attitude of the central banks in the region, are also relevant.
The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has revised upwards, to 3.9%, from the previous 3.7%, the inflation forecast for the end of 2026 and anticipates that it will reach 2.7% at the end of 2027, according to data presented in February by BNR Governor Mugur Isărescu.
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