Capping commercial margins on fuel in Romania is a protection measure for the consumers, but in reality it could determine a reduction in supply and increase the risk of shortages, President of the Asociatia Energia Inteligenta (Smart Energy Association - AEI) Dumitru Chisalita believes.
"In a time when the global energy market is already tense, the idea of capping commercial margins on fuel in Romania seems, at the first sight, a protection measure for the consumer. However, in reality, the economic mechanisms it triggers are more complex and - under certain conditions, it can lead to the exact opposite effect: reducing supply and increasing the risk of shortages," Chisalita explained in an analysis.
According to him, the commercial margin is not the final profit of distributors, but the gross difference between the purchase price and the selling price. In Romania, the typical gross margin in 2025 was around 0.10 - 0.70 lei per liter (1% - 7% of the final price), and the actual profit s extremely small, in some cases standing at 2 - 30 ban per liter.
Thus, applying the scenario proposed by the authorities, reducing the margin to 50% of the average of the last 12 months based on the data extracted by the AEI from the companies' public reports would not reduce company profit, but would turn them into losses.
He mentioned as examples the price caps in Hungary (2021-2022) and France (2022-2023), which forced price reductions and maintained political pressure over distributors, the UK (2021), with a combination of low margins, rising costs and public pressure on prices, Spain (2022), with subsidies for consumers and Italy (2022-2023), where the state did not directly cap the margin, but began to investigate and indirectly limit it through pressure and regulation.
As a result, capping fuel margins under various forms brought shortages, Chisalita argued.
He also explained that immediately after a cap is introduced, an importer does not "abandon" the market overnight.
He added that Romania depends on diesel imports. If imports decrease by 10-20% and the demand remains constant, then tension arise in the supply chain, regional disparities and temporary shortages.
In his view, capping margins does not produce an immediate collapse, but rather a slow erosion of supply. "You will not see petrol stations closing everywhere instantly. You will see: local shortages, delayed deliveries, a more rigid market and dependence on a few players. And under conditions of global stress, this fragility will turn into a crisis," Chisalita concluded his analysis.
Thus, in an Open Letter to the Government of Romania, the AEI requests that the Emergency Ordinance on declaring a crisis situation on the oil and/or petroleum products market and on introducing measures to protect the economy and the population during the crisis situation not be adopted in the form presented.
The Government will adopt an emergency ordinance on Tuesday declaring a crisis in the crude oil and petroleum products market, with measures to be put in place in order to protect the economy and the population during this crisis.
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