Fuel prices could increase in Romania by RON 0.50 to RON 4.5 per litre, depending on the severity of a possible regional crisis, with diesel at the forefront of price increases, according to Chairman of the Smart Energy Association (AEI), Dumitru Chisalita.
"Amid geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, but also elsewhere in the world, Romania could see new fuel price increases in the coming months. Market analyses show that diesel remains much more exposed than gasoline, due to its high dependence on imports and its strategic role in transport, agriculture and industry. According to estimates, prices may increase by RON 0.5 to RON 4.5 lei per litre, depending on the severity of a possible regional crisis, with diesel at the forefront of price increases. In a situation with regional tensions, additional sanctions or minor transport difficulties, gasoline prices could increase by between RON 0.50 and RON 1.25 per litre, and diesel between RON 0.60 and RON 1.50 per litre. Even if this scenario were not a severe one, the impact would be immediate, especially on diesel fuel, where the demand remains constant even in a difficult economic context," Chisalita said in an analysis released on Friday.
The specialist adds that if logistical blockages, export limitations or disruptions occur in the Black Sea area, the effects would be much more pronounced. Thus, gasoline could become more expensive by RON 1.25 - RON 2.25 per litre, and diesel by RON 1.75 - RON 3 litre.
"The transport industry would quickly feel the pressure, and the additional costs would pass on to end consumers. In an extreme scenario - the outbreak of an extended conflict, broad embargoes or a simultaneous energy crisis in the region - prices at the pump can witness dramatic surges. Gasoline would advance RON 2 - 3.25 per litre, while diesel could add RON 3 - 4.5 per litre to the current price. In such case, diesel would clearly exceed the threshold of RON 10 per litre, and in extreme instances it can even reach RON 12 per litre in the absence of the government stepping in."
In the expert's view, prices in Romania are also influenced by refineries in Bulgaria and Greece, both exposed to tensions in the Black Sea area.
"Thus, in various studies it is pointed out that diesel is 40-80% more sensitive than gasoline to external shocks. Compared to the current prices - RON 7.74 per litre for gasoline and RON 8 per litre for diesel - the estimates indicate three possible levels of impact: realistic minimum +RON 0.5 - + RON 1.2 per litre; average impact +RON +1.2 - +2.5 per litre, and severe impact (Eastern Europe in crisis) +RON 3 - +4.5 litre, especially diesel. In other words, even in a situation without dramatic escalations, drivers will feel additional pressure at the pump," according to Chisalita. (1 EUR = RON 5.09)
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