CFA Romania estimates 4.8663 lei/euro exchange rate, average inflation rate of 3.52pct in next 12 months

Most CFA Romania analysts estimate a depreciation of the leu-euro exchange rate in the following 12 months, worth 4,8663 lei, and an anticipated average inflation rate of 3.52 per cent, according to data released on Monday concerning the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator for November. 

In November this year, the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association increased by 2.5 per cent from last month, up to 56.9 points. Also, the same indicator increased by 12.6 points compared with the same interval of 2018. 

The current conditions component of the Indicator increase by 3.8 points in November against September, up to 68.8 points, and by 13.2 per cent against the same month last year. 

Moreover, the anticipations Indicator increased by 1.8 points, up to 51 points, and by 12.3 points against November 2018. 

In what concerns the euro/leu exchange rate, more than 85 per cent of the participants in the CFA Romania poll estimated a depreciation of the national currency in the next six months of up to 4.8256 lei, and up to 4.8663 lei respectively in the next 12 months. 

The anticipated inflation rate for 12 months recorded an average value of 3.52 per cent (November 2020/November 2019). 

"It is worth noting that anticipations regarding the increase in the interest rates both for the short maturities (3-month Robor) and the long ones (sovereign bonds with five-year maturity, denominated in lei), more than 66 per cent, and 61 per cent respectively among the participants in the survey anticipating these evolutions," read the CFA Romania Association. 

The CFA Romania is the organisation of investment professionals from banking, most of them holding the title of Chartered Financial Analyst, granted by the CFA Institute (USA). Currently, CFA Romania has more than 240 members.