Relative stability in manufacturing industry and retail trade until end of 2019; decline in construction activity

The trends in the development of the economic activity between October and December 2019 show a relative stability in the manufacturing industry and retail trade, a relative stability of the number of employees in the manufacturing industry and services, but also a moderate increase of prices in all sectors, according to the data published on Monday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). 

According to the business trend survey of October 2019, managers from the manufacturing industry forecast a moderate growth of the production volume (balance +4 percent) for the next three months. The highest growth is estimated for the manufacturing of basic pharmacy products and pharmaceutical preparations (conjuncture balance +38 percent), followed by the manufacturing of means of transport and tobacco products (balance +35 percent). 

Regarding the number of employees, a relative stability is estimated, with a balance of -3 percent per total manufacturing industry. 

For the prices of the industrial products, a moderate growth is forecast for the next three months (conjuncture balance +8 percent). 

According to the estimations, in October 2019, in the construction activity a decline in the volume of the construction activity (conjuncture balance -19 percent) will be registered. Managers estimate a moderate decline of the number of employees (conjuncture balance -10 percent). 

In respect to the prices of construction works, a moderate growth is forecast (conjuncture balance +7 percent). 

In the retail trade sector, managers estimate a relative stability trend in the economic activity for the next three months (conjuncture balance +4 percent). The volume of orders placed by the trade units with the suppliers of goods will register a moderate growth (conjuncture balance +10 percent). Employers forecast an increase in the number of employees (conjuncture balance +17 percent) for the next three months. For the next period, managers of trade companies estimate a moderate increase of retail prices (conjuncture balance +15 percent). 

According to the estimates of October 2019, the demand for services (turnover) will register a moderate increase in the next three months (conjuncture balance +6 percent). In the services sector, a relative stability will be recorded in terms of the number of employees (conjuncture balance +2 percent). According to the managers, the selling or invoice prices of provisions will have a moderate growth trend (conjuncture balance +6 percent). 

"The balance indicates the perception of the companies' managers concerning the dynamics of a phenomenon, which should not be seen as the intensity of increase or decrease of any statistical indicator value that is produced by the INS. The conjuncture balance is calculated as a difference between the percentage of managers who chose the positive alternative of the phenomenon and the percentage of those who indicated the negative alternative," the INS mentions.